Household debt and business cycles worldwide /

Household debt and business cycles worldwide /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Mian, Atif, 1975- author.
Imprint:	[Chicago, Illinois] : University of Chicago Law School, 2016.
Description:	1 online resource (64 pages) : illustrations.
Language:	English
Series:	Kreisman working paper series in housing law and policy; no. 38 Kreisman working paper on housing law and policy ; no. 38.
Subject:	Households -- Finance, Personal -- Econometric models. Debt -- Econometric models. Economic forecasting -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- Econometric models. Debt -- Econometric models. Economic forecasting -- Econometric models.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/10942388

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Sufi, Amir, author. Verner, Emil, author.
Notes:	"June 2016." Includes bibliographical references. Description based on online resource, viewed January 12, 2017.
Summary:	"An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower subsequent GDP growth and higher unemployment in an unbalanced panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Low mortgage spreads are associated with an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth, highlighting the importance of credit supply shocks. Economic forecasters systematically over-predict GDP growth at the end of household debt booms, suggesting an important role of flawed expectations formation. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes and those closer to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt."

Description
Item Description:	"June 2016."
Physical Description:	1 online resource (64 pages) : illustrations.
Bibliography:	Includes bibliographical references.