The presidential pulse of congressional elections /

Campbell sets out to reexamine the surge and decline theory of congressional elections first postulated by Angus Campbell (no relation to the author) in the early 1960s and explores its relationship to referenda theory. The author finds ample evidence to prove that congressional candidates of the winning presidential party benefit from a presidential election year surge. The author's analysis of election data indicates that the surge is not limited to elections for the House of Representatives but is evident in state legislative and US Senate elections. Presidential surge effects were also found at the congressional district level--"Support for congressional candidates was influenced by support in their districts for the top of their party's ticket." The decline part of the theory is also found to hold true as presidential party congressional candidates lose votes in the midterm election in proportion to their vote gains in the prior presidential election. Campbell notes that the "presidential pulse" of congressional elections is a weakened pulse. This study is an excellent piece of work, reexamining with care the surge and decline theory which is now 30-plus years old. Thoughtfully analyzed, methodologically sound, carefully documented, this is a timely analysis of an important electoral phenomenon. Advanced undergraduate; graduate; faculty. W. K. Hall; Bradley University