Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan /

Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Batini, Nicoletta, author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Description:	1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/12/190 IMF working paper ; WP/12/190.
Subject:	Multiplier (Economics) -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- United States -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Europe -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Japan -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Europe. Japan. United States. Electronic books.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/11139242

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Callegari, Giovanni, author. Melina, Giovanni, author. International Monetary Fund. European Department.
ISBN:	1475537921 9781475537925
Notes:	Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012). "EUR." "July 2012." Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37).
Summary:	The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.
Standard no.:	10.5089/9781475537925.001

Description
Summary:	The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to frontloaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.
Item Description:	Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012). "EUR." "July 2012."
Physical Description:	1 online resource (60 pages) : color charts
Bibliography:	Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37).
ISBN:	1475537921 9781475537925