Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /
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Author / Creator: | Cherif, Reda. |
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Imprint: | Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012. |
Description: | 1 online resource (28 pages) : charts |
Language: | English |
Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/12/230 IMF working paper ; WP/12/230. |
Subject: | |
Format: | E-Resource Book |
URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/11157646 |
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100 | 1 | |a Cherif, Reda. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009159654 | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Public debt dynamics : |b the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |c Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c 2012. | ||
300 | |a 1 online resource (28 pages) : |b charts | ||
336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
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347 | |a data file | ||
490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/12/230 | |
500 | |a At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. | ||
500 | |a "September 2012." | ||
504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). | ||
520 | 3 | |a The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. | |
505 | 0 | |a Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. | |
505 | 8 | |a 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. | |
505 | 8 | |a A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. | |
650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
650 | 6 | |a Dettes publiques |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Public Finance. |2 bisacsh | |
650 | 7 | |a Debts, Public |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00888859 | |
650 | 7 | |a Fiscal policy |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00925810 | |
651 | 7 | |a United States. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01204155 | |
655 | 7 | |a Electronic books. |2 gtlm | |
700 | 1 | |a Hasanov, Fuad, |d 1978- |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009070142 | |
710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Institute for Capacity Development. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2012075144 | |
830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/12/230. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
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