Tychomancy : inferring probability from causal structure /

Tychomancy : inferring probability from causal structure /

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Strevens, Michael.
Imprint:Cambridge, Massachusetts : Harvard University Press, [2013]
Description:1 online resource
Language:English
Subject:
Probabilities.
Inference.
Empiricism.
Empiricism.
Inference.
Probabilities.
Electronic books.
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/11188463
Hidden Bibliographic Details
ISBN:9780674075986
0674075986
9780674073111
0674073118
Notes:Includes bibliographical references and index.
Print version record.
Summary:Michael Strevens makes three claims about rules for inferring physical probability. They are reliable. They constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate the world safely in the absence of scientific knowledge. And they played a crucial role in scientific innovation, from statistical physics to natural selection.
Tychomancy--meaning "the divination of chances"--Presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.
Other form:Print version: Strevens, Michael. Tychomancy. Cambridge, Massachusetts : Harvard University Press, [2013] 9780674073111
Review by Choice Review

"Tyche" (from Greek) means chance; "mancy" (from Greek) means divination. Inference and intuition are forms of divination. Following Charles Peirce's philosophy (tychism) that the universe is governed by chance and, hence, that everything is probabilistic, Stevens (philosophy, New York Univ.) seeks to find the rules by which probabilities are inferred by all humans in all contexts. He calls the system of these rules "equidynamics." His exploration is part philosophy of science, part history of science, and part psychology. It is wide ranging, encompassing the inferring of probabilities--using the system of rules--regarding the behavior of physical objects, organisms, minds, social groups, and the like. His construction of equidynamics is a fascinating and captivating journey; his examples of the employment of equidynamics are convincing. The rules, he argues, are reliable, part of the innate knowledge structure of all humans, and they have played an indispensable role in many major scientific advances. These features make equidynamics central to understanding how people infer the behavior of things in science and in everyday life. This book will interest historians and philosophers of science, psychologists, physicists, and biologists. Summing Up: Highly recommended. Upper-division undergraduates through professionals with some knowledge of probability. R. Paul Thompson University of Toronto

Copyright American Library Association, used with permission.
Review by Choice Review

Similar Items