Welfare reform : effects of a decade of change /

Grogger (public policy, Univ. of Chicago) and Karoly (senior economist, Rand Corporation) provide a thoughtful, comprehensive assessment of the scores of significant studies on the effects of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act. These studies are sorted into (random) experiments and "observational" estimates, and organized to evaluate how the various reforms affected the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (formerly Aid to Families with Dependent Children) caseloads, welfare payments, employment of single mothers, and total household income. They conclude that the studies generally found that welfare caseloads and payments fell in response to the reforms, and mothers' employment earnings rose, but there was little, if any, change in total family income. A recurring thread is whether basic income-leisure theory adequately predicts the researchers' findings, and they find it ordinarily does. They observe that, while theory predicts that the act's goals are not internally consistent and that trade-offs across goals are to be expected, theory nevertheless does not unambiguously predict the signs of certain reforms. The authors also examine studies that analyze the relation between the reforms and both family structure and child outcomes. For new researchers, this is the place to start. Outstanding bibliography. ^BSumming Up: Highly recommended. General readers; students, lower-division undergraduate and up; researchers and professionals. H. Kasper Oberlin College