Developments in demographic forecasting /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:	Cham : Springer, 2020.
Description:	1 online resource (261 pages)
Language:	English
Series:	The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Ser., 1389-6784 ; v. 49 Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; v. 49.
Subject:	Population forecasting. Demography -- Statistical methods. Demography -- Forecasting -- Methodology. Demography -- Statistical methods. Population forecasting.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12415266

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Mazzuco, Stefano. Keilman, Nico.
ISBN:	9783030424725 3030424723 3030424715 9783030424718
Notes:	Open access. Print version record.
Summary:	This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Other form:	Print version: Mazzuco, Stefano. Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, ©2020 9783030424718
Standard no.:	10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5

Table of Contents:

Introduction / Nico Keilman and Stefano Mazzuco
Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts / Rebecca Graziani
Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions / Patrice Dion, Nora Galbraith, and Elham Sirag
Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? / Maria Castiglioni, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, and Maria Letizia Tanturri
Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes / Emanuele Aliverti, Daniele Durante, and Bruno Scarpa
A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions / Ugofilippo Basellini and Carlo Giovanni Camarda
Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy / Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Søren Kjærgaard, Marius D. Pascariu, Još Manuel Aburto, Jes︢s-Adrìn Alvarez, Ugofilippo Basellini, Silvia Rizzi, and James W. Vaupel
Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide / Heather Booth
European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? / Nico Keilman and Sigve Kristoffersen Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland /Junni L. Zhang and John Bryant
Forecasting Origin-Destination-Age-Sex Migration Flow Tables with Multiplicative Components / James Raymer, Xujing Bai, and Peter W. F. Smith
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing /Sergei Scherbov and Warren C. Sanderson.

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