Probabilistic sustainability of public debt : a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /
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| Author / Creator: | Tanner, Evan, author. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | [Washington, D.C.] : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006. |
| Description: | 1 online resource (42 pages) : illustrations |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/06/295 IMF working paper ; WP/06/295. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12495588 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Tanner, Evan, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no98108501 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Probabilistic sustainability of public debt : |b a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / |c prepared by Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b IMF Institute and African Dept., |c 2006. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (42 pages) : |b illustrations | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/06/295 | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 39-42). | ||
| 520 | |a This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks. | ||
| 506 | |3 Use copy |f Restrictions unspecified |2 star |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 533 | |a Electronic reproduction. |b [Place of publication not identified] : |c HathiTrust Digital Library, |d 2010. |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 538 | |a Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. |u http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 |5 MiAaHDL | ||
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| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK -- III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY -- IV. BRAZIL, 2000�05 -- V. MEXICO -- VI. TURKEY -- VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES -- REFERENCES | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z Brazil |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z Mexico |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z Turkey |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z Brazil |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z Mexico |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z Turkey |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes publiques |z Brésil |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes publiques |z Mexique |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z Brésil |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z Mexique |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Debts, Public |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00888859 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Fiscal policy |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00925810 | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Brazil. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01206830 | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Mexico. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01211700 | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Turkey. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01208963 | |
| 655 | 4 | |a Computer network resources. | |
| 655 | 7 | |a Electronic books. |2 gtlm | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Samaké, Issouf, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2001017056 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a IMF Institute. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n81065613 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b African Department. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Tanner, Evan. |t Probabilistic sustainability of public debt. |d [Washington, D.C.] : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006 |w (OCoLC)144443560 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/06/295. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
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