Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | SamakeĢ, Issouf, author.
IMF Institute.
International Monetary Fund. African Department.
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| ISBN: | 146234979X
9781462349791
1452705739
9781452705736
1283516721
9781283516723
9786613829177
661382917X
1451910088
9781451910087
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| Digital file characteristics: | text file
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 39-42).
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
English.
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
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| Other form: | Print version: Tanner, Evan. Probabilistic sustainability of public debt. [Washington, D.C.] : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006
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