Probabilistic sustainability of public debt : a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /

Probabilistic sustainability of public debt : a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Tanner, Evan, author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006.
Description:	1 online resource (42 pages) : illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/06/295 IMF working paper ; WP/06/295.
Subject:	Debts, Public -- Brazil -- Econometric models. Debts, Public -- Mexico -- Econometric models. Debts, Public -- Turkey -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Brazil -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Mexico -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Turkey -- Econometric models. Debts, Public -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Brazil. Mexico. Turkey.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12495588

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Samaké, Issouf, author. IMF Institute. International Monetary Fund. African Department.
ISBN:	146234979X 9781462349791 1452705739 9781452705736 1283516721 9781283516723 9786613829177 661382917X 1451910088 9781451910087
Digital file characteristics:	text file
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references (pages 39-42). Restrictions unspecified Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010. Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 English. digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve Print version record.
Summary:	This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Other form:	Print version: Tanner, Evan. Probabilistic sustainability of public debt. [Washington, D.C.] : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006

Table of Contents:

Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK
III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY
IV. BRAZIL, 2000â€?05
V. MEXICO
VI. TURKEY
VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES
REFERENCES