The cyclicality of fiscal policy in the Middle East and Central Asia : is the current crisis different? /

The cyclicality of fiscal policy in the Middle East and Central Asia : is the current crisis different? /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010.
Description:1 online resource (26 pages) : color illustrations.
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/10/68
IMF working paper ; WP/10/68.
Subject:
Fiscal policy -- Middle East.
Fiscal policy -- Asia, Central.
Business cycles -- Middle East.
Business cycles -- Asia, Central.
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
Business cycles.
Fiscal policy.
Central Asia.
Middle East.
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12495746
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:Abdih, Y. (Yasser), author.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body.
ISBN:1283566532
9781283566537
9781452759128
145275912X
145198197X
9781451981971
9781451982121
1451982127
ISSN:2227-8885
Notes:Includes bibliographical references.
Summary:The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response during the current global economic crisis is different in 2009. Across a sample of 28 countries, we find that fiscal policy has typically amplified the business cycles and that it has been more procyclical in good times than in bad times. However, the response to the current crisis has differed from the past in that about half of the countries responded countercyclically in 2009. Going forward, the fiscal space during downturns varies widely across countries, depending on the level of debt, access to capital markets, and natural resource wealth. Not surprisingly, the oil exporters have more fiscal room than oil importers, although there are some oil importers that still have room to respond countercyclically in bad times.
Standard no.:10.5089/9781451981971.001
Table of Contents:
  • Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Background; 1. Standard Deviation of Real GDP Growth Rates, 2000-2007 (simple averages); 1. Country Size and GDP per capita; 2. Nominal GDP, 2007 (billions of US dollars); 3. Oil GDP, 2007 (percent of total GDP); 4. Oil Revenues of the Government, 2007 (percent of total revenues); III. Fiscal Policy in the Past; A. The Conceptual Framework and Measurement Issues; B. Two Stylized Facts; 5. Correlation between Real Output and Real Spending (cyclical components); 2. Correlation between Real Government Spending and Real GDP.
  • 3. Correlation between Real Government Spending and Real GDP in Good and Bad TimesIV. Fiscal Policy Response to the Crisis in 2009: Was it Different?; A. Selecting Appropriate Variables of Measurement; 6. Change in Primary Balance, 2009 (percent of GDP); 7. Change in Non-Oil Primary Balance, 2009 (percent of GDP); 8. Change in Non-Oil Primary Balance, 2009 (percent of non-oil GDP); B. Defining Fiscal Impulse versus Automatic Stabilizers; C. The Evidence; 9. Change in Output Gap, 2009 (percentage points); 10. Change in Non-Oil Primary Balance Breakdown, 2009 (percent of non-oil GDP).
  • V. Looking Forward: Are Stimulus Packages Affordable and Will They be Effective?A. Room to Maneuver-Fiscal Space; 11. T-Bills and Public Debt, 2009; 12. Lending Rates and Public Debt, 2009; B. Effectiveness of Fiscal Expansions; 4. Index of Fiscal Effectiveness; VI. Conclusion and Policy Implications; References; Footnotes.

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