Forecasting inflation in Chile using state-space and regime-switching models /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Nadal-De Simone, Francisco.
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept., ©2000.
Description:1 online resource (54 pages) : illustrations
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/00/162
IMF working paper ; WP/00/162.
Subject:
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12497268
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.
ISBN:1451903022
9781451903027
1462334733
9781462334735
1452773408
9781452773407
1282110918
9781282110915
9786613803795
6613803790
Notes:Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-21).
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
English.
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
Summary:Annotation The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. the main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors.
Other form:Print version: Nadal-De Simone, Francisco. Forecasting inflation in Chile using state-space and regime-switching models. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept., ©2000

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260 |a [Washington, D.C.] :  |b International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept.,  |c ©2000. 
300 |a 1 online resource (54 pages) :  |b illustrations 
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490 1 |a IMF working paper ;  |v WP/00/162 
504 |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-21). 
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533 |a Electronic reproduction.  |b [Place of publication not identified] :  |c HathiTrust Digital Library,  |d 2010.  |5 MiAaHDL 
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588 0 |a Print version record. 
520 8 |a Annotation  |b The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. the main findings are; forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target as a regressor are relatively better; the Phillips curve model outperforms the small open economy model in out-of-sample forecasts; and although Box-Jenkins models outperform the two models for short-term out-of-sample forecasts, their superiority deteriorates in longer forecasts. Adding a Markov-switching process to the models does not explain much of the conditional variance of the forecast errors. 
546 |a English. 
650 0 |a Inflation (Finance)  |z Chile  |x Forecasting  |x Econometric models. 
650 6 |a Inflation  |z Chili  |x Prévision  |x Modèles économétriques. 
650 7 |a Inflation (Finance)  |x Forecasting  |x Econometric models.  |2 fast  |0 (OCoLC)fst00972462 
651 7 |a Chile.  |2 fast  |0 (OCoLC)fst01205362 
710 2 |a International Monetary Fund.  |b Western Hemisphere Department.  |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n82237138 
776 0 8 |i Print version:  |a Nadal-De Simone, Francisco.  |t Forecasting inflation in Chile using state-space and regime-switching models.  |d [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept., ©2000  |w (OCoLC)45342135 
830 0 |a IMF working paper ;  |v WP/00/162.  |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 
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