Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN: | 145190178X
9781451901788
9781451856675
1451856679
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| ISSN: | 2227-8885
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references.
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.
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| Other form: | Print version: Billmeier, Andreas. Ghostbusting. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2004
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781451901788.001
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