Fiscal policy and business cycles in an oil-producing economy : the case of Venezuela /

Fiscal policy and business cycles in an oil-producing economy : the case of Venezuela /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Baldini, Alfredo, author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C] : International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department, ©2005.
Description:	1 online resource (42 pages) : illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/05/237 IMF working paper ; WP/05/237.
Subject:	Petroleum industry and trade. Fiscal policy -- Venezuela -- Econometric models. Petroleum industry and trade -- Venezuela -- Finance. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Petroleum industry and trade. Petroleum industry and trade -- Finance. Venezuela.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12498505

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department, issuing body.
ISBN:	1283512653 9781283512657 9781451907926 1451907923 1462391184 9781462391189 1452788502 9781452788500 9786613825100 6613825107
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references. English. Print version record.
Summary:	This paper analyzes the fiscal policy in Venezuela during 1991-2003, by using a number of statistical approaches to analyze trends and cycles of economic output and fiscal outcomes. The business cycle features a strong dominance of short-term cyclical components-each cycle having an average duration of about two to three years. However, the cyclical volatility of non-oil sector GDP is more than two times as large as the volatility of oil sector GDP. On the fiscal side, while oil revenues are independent of the business cycle, all the other main fiscal variables exhibit strong procyclicality. In particular, fiscal procyclicality is higher during good times than bad times, which could be related to the existence of "voracity effects." The discretionary component of fiscal policy is as volatile as the component induced by the business cycle.
Other form:	Print version: Baldini, Alfredo. Fiscal policy and business cycles in an oil-producing economy. [Washington, D.C] : International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept., 2005

Table of Contents:

Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
II. STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT THE VOLATILITY OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES
III. FISCAL TRENDS IN VENEZUELA
IV. DETRENDING AND BUSINESS CYCLES: THE METHODOLOGY
A. The Hodrick-Prescott Filter
B. The ARIMA Model-Based Approach
C. The Frequency-Domain Approach
D. The Modified Hodrick and Prescott Filter
V. BUSINESS CYCLE PROPERTIES OF FISCAL VARIABLES IN VENEZUELA
A. Volatility
B. Persistence
C. Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy
VI. FISCAL POLICY BEHAVIOR: DISCRETIONARY VERSUS CYCLICAL COMPONENT
VII. CONCLUDING REMARKSDETRENDING METHODS
REFERENCES