Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Debrun, Xavier, author.
Ostry, Jonathan David, 1962- author.
International Monetary Fund. Research and Fiscal Affairs Department.
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| ISBN: | 1283517035
9781283517034
9781451908633
1451908636
146238210X
9781462382101
145199138X
9781451991383
9786613829481
661382948X
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| Digital file characteristics: | text file
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references.
Restrictions unspecified
Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010.
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212
English.
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve
Print version record.
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| Summary: | This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations
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| Other form: | Print version: Celasun, Oya. Primary surplus behavior and risks to fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research and Fiscal Affairs Dept., 2006
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781451908633.001
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