Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN: | 9781455276790
1455276790
1282846507
9781282846500
1455201618
9781455201617
1462327486
9781462327485
9786612846502
661284650X
1455201898
9781455201891
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| Notes: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 41-43).
English.
Print version record.
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| Summary: | Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation.
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| Other form: | Print version: Crowe, Christopher W. Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation. Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010 9781455201891
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