Consensus forecasts and inefficient information aggregation /
Saved in:
| Author / Creator: | Crowe, Christopher, author. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010. |
| Description: | 1 online resource (42 pages) |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/10/178 IMF working paper ; WP/10/178. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12498656 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Crowe, Christopher, |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Consensus forecasts and inefficient information aggregation / |c prepared by Christopher Crowe. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2010. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (42 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/10/178 | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 41-43). | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; B. Assumed Information Structure of Data; C. Empirical Methodology; A. Basic Model and Results; I. Introduction; Table 1. Correlation Coefficients; II. Model and Empirical Strategy; A. Basic Model and Results; B. Efficiency Tests; Table 2. Naive vs. Rational Priors; Table 3. Baseline Efficiency Tests; Table 4. Efficiency Tests: Iterative Error Adjustment; Table 5. In-Sample Efficiency Gains, by Country; C. Efficiency Gains from adjusted Consensus Forecasts; Table 6. In-Sample Efficiency Gains, by Forecast Horizon. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Table 7. Out of Sample Efficiency Gains, by CountryTable 8. Out of Sample Efficiency Gains, by Forecast Horizon; D. Robustness Checks; Table 9. Efficiency Tests: Median Forecasts; Table 10. Efficiency Tests: Real Time Growth Data; Table 11. SPF Nominal GDP Forecasts; III. Application to Cross-Country Growth Forecasts; A. Morris and Shin (2002): A Reassessment; B. Groupthink, Bank Behavior and the Credit Crunch; IV. Discussion; V. Conclusions; Appendix; Table A1. Individual Regression Results Summary; Table A2. Individual SPF Regression Results Summary; References; Footnotes. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Information theory in economics |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Econometrics. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85040763 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision économique |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Théorie de l'information en économie politique |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Économétrie. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Econometrics. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00901574 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic forecasting |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00901947 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Information theory in economics |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00973169 | |
| 655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department, |e issuing body. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Crowe, Christopher W. |t Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation. |d Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010 |z 9781455201891 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/10/178. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
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