Deconstructing the international business cycle : why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold? /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Bayoumi, Tamim A., author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010.
Description:	1 online resource (29 pages) : color illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/10/239 IMF working paper ; WP/10/239.
Subject:	Business cycles -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- United States -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- Econometric models. United States. Electronic books.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12499525

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Bui, Trung, author. International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body.
ISBN:	1283555913 9781283555913 9781455213337 1455213330
Notes:	Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed November 17, 2011). At head of title: Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. "October 2010." Includes bibliographical references.
Summary:	The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method freely estimates the contemporaneous correlation matrix for underlying shocks in the VAR and (uniquely, to our knowledge) the associated uncertainty. Our results suggest that the international business cycle is largely driven by U.S. financial shocks with a significant impact from global shocks, mainly reflecting commodity prices. Other advanced economic regions play a much smaller and regional role in growth spillovers. Our findings are consistent with the emerging evidence on the current crisis.
Other form:	Print version: Fund, International Monetary. Deconstructing The International Business Cycle: Why Does A U.S. Sneeze Give The Rest Of The World A Cold? Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010 9781455209392

Table of Contents:

Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identification of Structural VARs through Heteroskedasticity; 1. Identification through Heteroskedasticity Example; III. VAR Specification and Parameter Stability Tests; 2. Quarter-to-Quarter Real GDP Growth (1970-2007); 1: Estimated Standard Errors of Quarter-to-Quarter Output Growth by Decade; 2. Test Results for Structural Breaks in the VAR Coefficients; 3. Test Results for Structural Change in the A Matrix; IV. International Spillovers: Directions and Sizes; 4. Average Contemporaneous A-Inverse Matrix-1980:Q1-2007:Q4.
3a. (Accumulated) Impulse Responses of Real GDP to 1-s.d. Structural Shock3b. (Accumulated) Impulse Responses of Real GDP to 1-s.d. Structural Shock; 5. Changes in Standard Errors of Structural Shocks; 6. Variance Decomposition of Real GDP at 8th-Quarter; 7. Variance Decompositions of Real GDP at 8th-Quarter (extended); V. Sources of Spillovers; 4. Decomposition of Spillover Effects; VI. Explaining the Great Recession; 5. Structural GDP Growth Shocks; VII. Conclusions; Appendix; References; Footnotes.

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