Equilibrium non-oil current account assessments for oil producing countries /

Equilibrium non-oil current account assessments for oil producing countries /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Thomas, Alun H. (Alun Huw), author.
Imprint:	Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2008. ©2008
Description:	1 online resource (24 pages) : illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/08/198.
Subject:	Equilibrium (Economics) -- Econometric models. Balance of payments -- Econometric models. Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models. Balance of payments -- Econometric models. Equilibrium (Economics) -- Econometric models. Petroleum industry and trade -- Econometric models.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12499646

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Kim, Jun (Jun Il), author. Aslam, Aqib, author. International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Department. International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
ISBN:	1282841491 9781282841499
Notes:	At head of title: Policy Development and Review and Research Departments. "August 2008." Includes bibliographical references (page 24). Print version record.
Summary:	This paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.
Other form:	Print version: Thomas, Alun H. (Alun Huw). Equilibrium non-oil current account assessments for oil producing countries. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2008

Table of Contents:

I. Introduction; II. Basic Structure of Alternative Methodology; Existing analysis; III. Model; A. General Model; B. Model Application to Oil Based Economy; IV. Estimation; V. Sensitivity Tests of the Annual Return on Oil Wealth; VI. Equilibrium Non-oil Current Account Assessment; A. Historical Accuracy of the Consumption Smoothing Model; B. Country Estimates of Non-oil Current Account; VII. Conclusions; References