Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body.
|
|---|
| ISBN: | 128356517X
9781283565172
9781463988845
1463988842
|
|---|
| Notes: | At head of title: European Department.
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed December 12, 2011).
"December 2011."
Includes bibliographical references (page 22).
|
|---|
| Summary: | "In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting"--Page [1].
|
|---|
