Inflation dynamics in FYR Macedonia /
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| Author / Creator: | Shamloo, Maral, author. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011. |
| Description: | 1 online resource (22 pages) : color charts |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/11/287 IMF working paper ; WP/11/287. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12499826 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Shamloo, Maral, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2008007609 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Inflation dynamics in FYR Macedonia / |c Maral Shamloo. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2011. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (22 pages) : |b color charts | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/11/287 | |
| 500 | |a At head of title: European Department. | ||
| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed December 12, 2011). | ||
| 500 | |a "December 2011." | ||
| 520 | |a "In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting"--Page [1]. | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (page 22). | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodologies; A. Dynamic Factor Model; B. Vector Error Correction Model; C. New Keynesian Phillips Curve; D. Comparison of Forecasting Methods; III. Summary and Policy Conclusions; Tables; 1. ADF Tests; 2. Cointegration Test Results; 3. NKPC Estimates; 4. Forward-looking Component of Inflation Comparing Macedonia with New EU Member States; 5. Comparison of Methods; Figures; 1. One-period ahead forecast of the four factors; 2. Inflation, as predicted by the four factors; 3. Inflation forecast using DFM. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 4. Inflation predicted using the VECM method5. Monetary policy shocks; 6. Inflation predicted using the estimated Phillips Curve; IV. Appendix I; References. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) |z Macedonia |x Forecasting |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation |z Macédoine |x Prévision |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Forecasting |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00972462 | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Europe |z Macedonia. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01242198 | |
| 655 | 0 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b European Department, |e issuing body. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n86100166 | |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/11/287. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
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