Commodity prices and inflation expectations in the United States /
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Author / Creator: | Celasun, Oya, author. |
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Imprint: | [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012. |
Description: | 1 online resource (25 pages) : illustrations |
Language: | English |
Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/12/89 IMF working paper ; WP/12/89. |
Subject: | |
Format: | E-Resource Book |
URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12500147 |
Summary: | U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk. |
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Item Description: | At head of title: Western Hemisphere and Research Departments. Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed March 28, 2012). "March 2012." |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (25 pages) : illustrations |
Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |
ISBN: | 9781475510317 1475510314 9781475519501 1475519508 |