The future of oil : geology versus technology /

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Description:	1 online resource (33 pages) : illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/12/109 IMF working paper ; WP/12/109.
Subject:	Petroleum industry and trade -- Economic aspects. Petroleum products -- Prices -- Forecasting. Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models. Petroleum industry and trade -- Economic aspects. Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models. Petroleum products -- Prices -- Forecasting.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12500228

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Beneš, Jaromír, 1973- author. International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body.
ISBN:	1475562810 9781475562811 9781475567403 1475567405 9781475503302 147550330X
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references.
Summary:	We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
Standard no.:	10.5089/9781475562811.001

Table of Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Historical Forecasts of World Oil Production; III. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; C. GDP Equations; 1. Potential Level of GDP; 2. Potential Growth Rate of GDP; 3. Output Gap; IV. Analysis; A. Impulse Response Functions; B. Interpretation of History; C. Relative Forecast Performance; D. Current Forecasts; E. Oil and Output
Open Questions; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Parameter Estimates; 2. Root Mean Square Errors
Comparisons; Figures; 1. EIA Forecasts 2001-2010 (EIA Definition of World Total Oil Supply, in Mbd).
2. World Real Oil Prices and Spare Capacity3. Colin Campbell Forecasts 2003-2010 (Campbell Definition of Regular Conventional Oil, in Mbd); 4. Oil Production Forecasts in the Deffeyes (2005) Model (Q in gigabarrels, q in gigabarrels p.a.); 5. Impulse Responses (in percent level deviation from control); 6. Historical Residuals (in percent); 7. Contributions of Different Shocks to Oil Prices (in real 2011 US dollars); 8. Contributions of Different Shocks to Oil Production (in gigabarrels p.a.); 9. Rolling Forecasts; 10. Oil Output Forecast with Error Bands (in gigabarrels p.a.).

Similar Items