Public investment, growth and debt sustainability : putting together the pieces /

Public investment, growth and debt sustainability : putting together the pieces /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Description:1 online resource (53 pages) : color charts
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/12/144
IMF working paper ; WP/12/144.
Subject:
Public investments -- Developing countries -- Econometric models.
Economic development -- Developing countries -- Econometric models.
Debts, Public -- Developing countries -- Econometric models.
Debts, Public -- Econometric models.
Economic development -- Econometric models.
Public investments -- Econometric models.
Developing countries.
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12500254
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Varying Form of Title:At head of title: Research Department
Other authors / contributors:Buffie, Edward F., author.
International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body.
ISBN:9781475577259
1475577257
9781475504071
Notes:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jun. 6, 2012).
"June 2012."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 49-53).
Summary:We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Table of Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Firms; A.1. Technology; A.2. Factor Demands; B. Consumers; C. The Government; C.1. Infrastructure, Public Investment and Efficiency; C.2. Fiscal Adjustment and the Public Sector Budget Constraint; D. Market-Clearing Conditions and External Debt Accumulation; III. Calibration of the Model; Tables; Table 1. Base Case Calibration; IV. The Long-Run Outcome; Table 2. Public Investment Scaling Up, Concessional Borrowing, and Grants; A. Insights from a Simplified Model; Figures; Figure 1. The Long-run Outcome in the Simplified Model.
  • B. Numerical SolutionsTable 3. Long-run Effects of Scaling up Public Investment by 3 Percent of Initial GDP; V. The Medium-Term Fiscal and Macroeconomic Adjustments under Different Financing Schemes; A. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment; A.1. The Base Case; Figure 2. Base Case: Unconstrained Tax Adjustment; A.2. More Optimistic and Troublesome Scenarios; Figure 3. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: Optimistic and Troublesome Scenarios; A.3. Gradually Increasing Transfers, Efficiency, and the Collection Rate of User Fees; Figure 4. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: The Size of the Scaling Up.
  • Figure 5. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment: Increasing TransfersB. Constrained Tax Adjustment Combined with External Commercial Borrowing; B.1. Tax Smoothing and Private Demand Crowding Out; Figure 6. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment versus Constrained Tax Adjustment with External Commercial Borrowing; B.2. Debt Blowups: Structural and Policy Conditions; Figure 7. Constrained Tax Adjustment with External Commercial Borrowing: Varying the Structural and Policy Conditions; C. Constrained Tax Adjustment Combined with Domestic Borrowing.
  • Figure 8. Constrained Tax Adjustment: Domestic Borrowing versus External Commercial BorrowingVI. External Shocks and Risks; Figure 9. External TOT Shocks: Shocks Persistence and Financing Schemes; Figure 10. TFP and Risk Premium Shocks and Risks; VII. Concluding Remarks; Appendix A. On Public Investment Efficiency, Rates of Return, and Growth; References.

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