Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Blanchard, Olivier (Olivier J.)
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013.
Description:1 online resource (43 pages)
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/13/01
IMF working paper ; WP/13/01.
Subject:
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12501448
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Other authors / contributors:Leigh, Daniel.
International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
ISBN:9781475523904
1475523904
1475576447
9781475576443
9781475532425
1475532423
Notes:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jan. 11, 2013).
"Research Department."
"January 2013."
Includes bibliographical references.
English.
Summary:This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.