Structural transformation and the volatility of aggregate output in OECD countries /

Structural transformation and the volatility of aggregate output in OECD countries /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Lonkeng Ngouana, Constant, author.
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013.
Description:1 online resource (29 pages) : color illustrations
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/13/43
IMF working paper ; WP/13/43.
Subject:
Service industries -- OECD countries.
Gross national product -- OECD countries.
Labor productivity -- OECD countries.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- OECD countries.
Gross national product.
Labor productivity.
Service industries.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy)
OECD countries.
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12501548
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development.
ISBN:9781475544701
1475544707
Notes:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 19, 2013).
"Institute for Capacity Development"--Page 2 of pdf.
"February 2013"--Page 2 of pdf.
Includes bibliographical references.
Summary:"This paper finds a negative relationship between the employment share of the service sector and the volatility of aggregate output in the OECD - after controlling for the level of financial development. This result reflects volatility differentials across sectors: labor productivity is more volatile in agriculture and manufacturing than in services. Aggregate output would therefore become less volatile as labor moves away from agriculture and manufacturing and toward the service sector. I examine the quantitative role of these labor shifts - termed structural transformation - on the volatility of aggregate output in OECD countries. I first calibrate to the U.S. economy an indivisible labor model in which the reallocation of labor across sectors emerges endogenously from sectoral labor productivity growth differentials. The setup is then used to generate the time path of labor shares in agriculture, manufacturing and services in individual countries. Finally, I perform a set of counterfactual analyzes in which the reallocation of labor across sectors is constrained endogenously. I find that the secular shift of labor towards the service sector was volatility-reducing in OECD countries during 1970-2006"--Abstract.
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Empirical Evidence; Figures; 1. Employment Share of the Service Sector and Aggregate Output Volatility in the OECD, 1970-2006.; III. The Model; A. The Economic Environment; B. Preferences; C. Analytical Solution to the Model; D. Calibration; IV. Results; A. Taking the Model to the Data; Tables; 1. Parameter Values; 2. Sectoral Labor Reallocation in the U.S.: Model vs. Data.; B. Counterfactual Experiments; 3. Employment Share of the Service Sector and Aggregate Output Volatility in the OECD (1970-2006): Model.
  • 2. The Role of Structural Transformation on Aggregate Output Volatility4. Sectoral Labor Reallocation in OECD Countries: Model vs. Data; V. Conclusion; References; Appendices; A. Data and Sources; B. Tables and Figures; 5. Summary Statistics on Sectoral Volatilities Across OECD Countries.; 6. The Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries (actual and trend).; 7. Sectoral Annual Hours Worked per Person Engaged in the US (in thousands).

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