Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts : evidence from a large international panel /

Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts : evidence from a large international panel /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013.
Description:	1 online resource (24 pages) : color illustrations.
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper ; WP/13/56 IMF working paper ; WP/13/56.
Subject:	Economic development -- Forecasting. Information theory in economics. Economic development -- Forecasting. Information theory in economics.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12501615

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Dovern, Jonas. International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
ISBN:	9781475585667 1475585667 1475587619 9781475587616
Notes:	Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Mar. 13, 2013). "Research Department"--Page 2 of pdf. "February 2013"--Page 2 of pdf. Includes bibliographical references (pages 21-23).
Summary:	"We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution"--Abstract.

Table of Contents:

Cover; Abstract; I. INTRODUCTION; II. METHODOLOGY FOR TESTING FOR FORECAST SMOOTHING; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; C. Nonlinearity; III. DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS; IV. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; Information Stickiness; Forecast Smoothing; C. Nonlinearity; V. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES.