Credit growth in Latin America : financial development or credit boom? /

Credit growth in Latin America : financial development or credit boom? /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo, author.
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013.
Description:1 online resource (48 pages) : color illustrations.
Language:English
Series:IMF working paper ; WP/13/106
IMF working paper ; WP/13/106.
Subject:
Credit -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Economic development -- Latin America -- Econometric models.
Credit -- Econometric models.
Economic development -- Econometric models.
Latin America.
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12501865
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:Sulla, Olga, author.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department, issuing body.
ISBN:9781484309339
1484309332
9781484390627
1484390628
Notes:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed May 15, 2013).
"Western Hemisphere Department"--Page 2 of pdf.
"May 2013"--Page 2 of pdf.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 44-47).
Summary:"Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America and uses econometric methods to determine whether it is indicative of financial deepening or poses risks of credit booms. The strongest credit growth occurred for consumption and mortgages within the household sector and for construction within the corporate sector. At the same time credit has de-dollarized in most countries and there are some signs of maturity lengthening. To assess whether the recent credit growth is excessive two different methods are applied. First, by application of HP-filters the paper finds that credit-to-GDP levels in a number of countries are above their long-term trend. Second, using a panel co-integration approach on 107 high and mid-income countries the paper estimates a model for the credit-to-GDP levels. Comparing the actual levels of credit with the ones predicted by the model we find that some countries in Latin America show significant and positive deviations. These results indicate the existence of a certain level of risk in the recent credit developments"--Abstract.
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Stylized Facts on The Credit Expansion in Latin America in 2004-11; III. Is Credit Excessive in Latin America?; A. Credit And Equity Price Gaps; B. A Model For The Long-Run Level Of Credit; C. Data And Estimation Results; D. Is Credit In Latin America Deviating From The Estimated Long-Run Level?; E. What Is Driving The Credit Growth In Latin America?; IV. Concluding Remarks; Figures; 1. Credit to Private Sector, International Comparison; 2. Credit to Private Sector, Development Over Time; 3. Credit to Private Sector and Deposits Accumulation.
  • 4. Credit to Private Sector, Households and Corporate5. Credit to Private Sector, Composition of the Corporate Credit; 6. Credit to Private Sector, Domestic and Foreign Banks; 7. Loans by Banking Sector to Private Sector by Currency; 8. Loans by Banking Sector by Maturity; 9. Credit-to-GDP gaps, 2000-2011; 10. Credit-to-GDP gaps, 2000-2011; 11. Credit-to-GDP Gaps, 2000-2011; 12. Real Equity Price Gaps, 2000-2011; 13. Estimated Credit Gaps and Banking Crises; 14. Estimated Credit Gaps; 15. Estimated Credit Gaps, continued; 16. Actual Less Predicted Credit Growth.
  • 17. Actual Less Predicted Credit Growth, continuedTables; 1. Determination of Integration Order; 2. Panel Cointegration Tests; 3. Results from Mean Group Estimation; 4. Results from Pooled OLS Estimation; Appendix; I. Data Set; A. Sample Of Countries; B. Data Definitions And Sources; References.

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