Mongolia : 2013 article IV consultation-staff report ; press release and statement by the executive director for Mongolia /

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Bibliographic Details
Corporate author / creator:International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department, author.
Imprint:Washington, District of Columbia : International Monetary Fund, 2014.
©2014
Description:1 online resource (79 pages) : illustrations (some color), tables, graphs
Language:English
Series:IMF Country Report ; Number 14/64
IMF country report ; no. 14/64.
Subject:
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12503643
Hidden Bibliographic Details
ISBN:9781475519716
1475519710
9781475572445
Notes:Online resource; title from PDF cover (ebrary, viewed April 19, 2014).
Summary:"Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past decade. Medium-term prospects remain promising given Mongolia's large natural resource endowment, but macroeconomic policies have become unsustainably loose. The resulting balance of payments (BOP) pressures have been compounded by negative shocks to FDI and coal exports. Outlook and Risks. Staff expect the economy to grow by 12 percent this year and 9 1/2 percent in 2014, buoyed by the start of production at the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper and gold mine. Over the past two years, nonmining growth has been boosted by fiscal and monetary stimulus. In view of the uncertain external environment, Mongolia needs to change course to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks. Gross international reserves are still adequate for precautionary purposes, but they have been supported by external borrowing and the declining trend in net international reserves observed this year is not sustainable. Policies. Securing sustainable growth while addressing macroeconomic risks requires a package of fiscal adjustment, unwinding of the monetary stimulus provided this year, and continued exchange rate flexibility. Banking sector vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the business climate also need to be addressed. Some encouraging steps are being taken to tighten fiscal policy in the remainder of 2013 and by basing the 2014 budget on more realistic revenue projections. However, including off-budget spending by the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) the overall fiscal deficit in 2013 will likely again be over 10 percent of GDP. Implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) is an urgent priority, with DBM spending to be included in the budget. Public investment projects should be reprioritized in view of constraints on absorptive and implementation capacity. The Bank of Mongolia (BOM)'s large monetary stimulus, through its so-called "price stabilization program," mortgage program, and liquidity injection, distorts markets and is bound to ratchet up inflation. The programs should be phased out and the BOM should focus on further strengthening the monetary policy framework while maintaining the increased exchange rate flexibility observed in recent months. Banking sector vulnerabilities need to be addressed. They stem from weaknesses in banking supervision, inadequate provisioning, high levels of loan concentration and dollarization, and a high and rising credit-to-deposit ratio. The government should build on the recent passage of the new investment law to further improve the business climate and encourage FDI inflows"--Abstract.
Other form:Print version: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department. Mongolia : 2013 article IV consultation-staff report; press release and statement by the executive director for Mongolia. Washington, District of Columbia : International Monetary Fund, ©2014 approximately 79 pages IMF country report ; Number 14/64 9781475572445
Standard no.:10.5089/9781475519716.002

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588 0 |a Online resource; title from PDF cover (ebrary, viewed April 19, 2014). 
520 0 |a "Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past decade. Medium-term prospects remain promising given Mongolia's large natural resource endowment, but macroeconomic policies have become unsustainably loose. The resulting balance of payments (BOP) pressures have been compounded by negative shocks to FDI and coal exports. Outlook and Risks. Staff expect the economy to grow by 12 percent this year and 9 1/2 percent in 2014, buoyed by the start of production at the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper and gold mine. Over the past two years, nonmining growth has been boosted by fiscal and monetary stimulus. In view of the uncertain external environment, Mongolia needs to change course to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks. Gross international reserves are still adequate for precautionary purposes, but they have been supported by external borrowing and the declining trend in net international reserves observed this year is not sustainable. Policies. Securing sustainable growth while addressing macroeconomic risks requires a package of fiscal adjustment, unwinding of the monetary stimulus provided this year, and continued exchange rate flexibility. Banking sector vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the business climate also need to be addressed. Some encouraging steps are being taken to tighten fiscal policy in the remainder of 2013 and by basing the 2014 budget on more realistic revenue projections. However, including off-budget spending by the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) the overall fiscal deficit in 2013 will likely again be over 10 percent of GDP. Implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) is an urgent priority, with DBM spending to be included in the budget. Public investment projects should be reprioritized in view of constraints on absorptive and implementation capacity. The Bank of Mongolia (BOM)'s large monetary stimulus, through its so-called "price stabilization program," mortgage program, and liquidity injection, distorts markets and is bound to ratchet up inflation. The programs should be phased out and the BOM should focus on further strengthening the monetary policy framework while maintaining the increased exchange rate flexibility observed in recent months. Banking sector vulnerabilities need to be addressed. They stem from weaknesses in banking supervision, inadequate provisioning, high levels of loan concentration and dollarization, and a high and rising credit-to-deposit ratio. The government should build on the recent passage of the new investment law to further improve the business climate and encourage FDI inflows"--Abstract. 
505 0 |a Cover; CONTENTS; RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK; A. Introduction; B. Expansionary Policies and External Shocks Are Pressuring the BOP; C. Outlook and Risks; TABLES; 1. Strong Policy and Weak Policy Scenarios, 2010-18; POLICY DISCUSSIONS; A. Fiscal Policy; B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; C. Financial Sector Issues; D. Structural Reforms and Statistics; STAFF APPRAISAL; BOXES; 1. The Recent Failure of Savings Bank; 2. Price Stabilization Program, Mortgage Program and Liquidity Injection; 3. The Monetary Policy Stance; 4. Exchange Rate Assessment. 
505 8 |a 5. Financial Soundness Indicators and Bank Stress TestsFIGURES; 1. Real Sector Developments; 2. Fiscal and Monetary Sector Developments; 3. External Sector Developments; 4. Inclusive Growth Indicators; 2. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2009-14; 3. Summary Operations of the General Government, 2009-14; 4. Statement of Operations and Stock Positions of the General Government, 2009-14; 5. Monetary Aggregates, 2009-14; 6. Balance of Payments, 2011-18; 7. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2009-18; 8. Financial Soundness Indicators of the Banking Sector; APPENDIXES. 
505 8 |a I. Risk Assessment MatrixII. Mongolia's New Fiscal Framework Anchored by the Fiscal Stability Law; CONTENTS; FUND RELATIONS; WORLD BANK-IMF COLLABORATION; RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK; STATISTICAL ISSUES; MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS; MAIN WEBSITES OF DATA. 
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