Uncertainty and unemployment : the effects of aggregate and sectoral channels /
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| Author / Creator: | Choi, Sangyup. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2015. |
| Description: | 1 online resource (26 pages) : color illustrations. |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/15/36 IMF working paper ; WP/15/36. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12504285 |
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| 050 | 4 | |a HG3881.5.I58 |b W67 No. 15/36eb | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Choi, Sangyup. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2015026248 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Uncertainty and unemployment : |b the effects of aggregate and sectoral channels / |c prepared by Sangyup Choi and Prakash Loungani. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2015. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (26 pages) : |b color illustrations. | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/15/36 | |
| 500 | |a "February 2015." | ||
| 500 | |a "Research Department." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 13-15). | ||
| 520 | |a We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S & P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a "wait-and-see" mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors. --Abstract. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed February 25, 2015). | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Measuring Uncertainty: Aggregate vs. Sectoral; A. The Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on Unemployment: Different Explanations; B. Construction of the Uncertainty Indices from the U.S. Stock Market; III. Structural VARs; A. The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks; B. Contribution of Uncertainty Shocks to Long-Term Unemployment during the Great Recession; C. Robustness Checks; IV. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. Uncertainty Index; 2 Distribution of Aggregate and Sectoral Uncertainty Indices; 3. Unemployment Rate (percent) | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 4. Response to Aggregate Uncertainty Shocks (7 Variable VAR)5. Response to Sectoral Uncertainty Shocks (7 Variable VAR); 6. Forecast Error Decomposition of Unemployment Rate by Aggregate Uncertainty; 7. Forecast Error Decomposition of Unemployment Rate by Sectoral Uncertainty; 8. The Response of the Long-term Unemployment Rate to Uncertainty Shocks; 9. Contribution of Uncertainty Shocks to the Long-term Unemployment Rate during the Great Recession; 10a. Robustness Check: Estimation with Data from 1984Q1 to 2014Q3; 10b. Robustness Check: Estimation with Data from 1984Q1 to 2007Q4. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 11. Robustness Check: 4 Variable VAR12 Robustness Check: The Reverse Ordering of the Baseline VAR System; 13 Robustness Check: Using 8 Lags instead of 4 Lags; Appendix A. Construction of the Sectoral Uncertainty Index; Table A1. Industrial Composition of the Sestoral Uncertainty Index. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Uncertainty |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Unemployment |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Incertitude |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Uncertainty |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01160833 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Unemployment |x Econometric models. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01161217 | |
| 655 | 0 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Loungani, Prakash. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n92021651 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |a Print Version: |z 9781498356305 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/15/36. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2015/036/001.2015.issue-036-en.xml |y INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
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