Avoiding dark corners : a robust monetary policy framework for the United States /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2015.
Description:	1 online resource (47 pages) : illustrations (chiefly color)
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/15/134 IMF working paper ; WP/15/134.
Subject:	Monetary policy -- United States -- Econometric models. Interest rates -- United States -- Econometric models. Inflation targeting -- United States -- Econometric models. Risk management -- United States -- Econometric models. Interest rates -- Econometric models. Monetary policy -- Econometric models. Risk management -- Econometric models. United States. Electronic books.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12504527

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	Alichi, Ali, author. International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
ISBN:	9781513583693 1513583697 1513595709 9781513595702 9781513530017 1513530011 1513591983 9781513591988 9781513595702
Notes:	"Prepared by Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondra Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, and Hou Wang." "June 2015." "Research Department." Includes bibliographical references (pages 34-37). Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed July 2, 2015).
Summary:	The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control approach to monetary policy, which includes the publication of a baseline forecast and a description of the uncertainties around that outlook, combined with an improvement in the Fed's communications toolkit, could further enhance the effectiveness of Fed policy. In the current conjuncture, such a risk management approach to monetary policy would result in both a later liftoff of policy rates and a modest, but planned, overshooting of inflation. --Abstract.
Other form:	Print Version: 9781513595702
Standard no.:	10.5089/9781513595702.001

Table of Contents:

Cover; Table of Contents; I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND; II. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AT THE FED; III. LOSS MINIMIZING MONETARY POLICY BASED ON A SIMPLE MODEL; III. 1 Background; III. 2 Outline of the model; III. 3 Illustrative simulation results; III. 4 Sensitivity analysis: variants of the model; III. 5 Forecast confidence bands and alternative simulations; III. 6 A summing up; IV. PUBLICATION OF ENDOGENOUS INTEREST RATE FORECASTS; V. WHOSE FORECAST SHOULD BE PUBLISHED?; VI. CONCLUSION; Appendix 1. Definitions; Appendix 2. The model; Appendix 3: Minimizing the loss function.

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