China's slowdown and global financial market volatility : is world growth losing out? /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:Cashin, Paul, (IMF staff)
Imprint:[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
Description:1 online resource (22 pages) : illustrations.
Language:English
Series:IMF Working Paper ; WP/16/63
IMF working paper ; WP/16/63.
Subject:
Format: E-Resource Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12504832
Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:Mohaddes, Kamiar, author.
Raissi, Mehdi, (IMF staff)
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department, issuing body.
ISBN:1513590456
9781513590455
9781513590455
ISSN:1018-5941
Notes:"March 2016."
"Asia and Pacific Department."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-21).
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed March 21, 2016).
Summary:China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.--Abstract.
Other form:Print Version: Cashin, Paul. China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility : Is World Growth Losing Out?. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016. 9781513590455
Standard no.:10.5089/9781513590455.001

MARC

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520 |a China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.--Abstract. 
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