A Toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies.

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Arbatli, Elif, author.
Imprint:	Washington : International Monetary Fund Jan. 2012.
Description:	1 online resource
Language:	English
Subject:	Risk assessment -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Debts, Public -- Econometric models. Debts, Public -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Risk assessment -- Econometric models.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12504874

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Other authors / contributors:	Alper, C. Emre, author. Jonas, Jiri, author.
ISBN:	9781463931162 1463931166
Summary:	Annotation This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. the analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.

Table of Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks: Dimensions, Indicators and Analytical Tools; A. Short-Term Pressures: Gross Funding Needs, Market Perceptions, and Susceptibility to Spillovers; B. Medium- and Long-Run Pressures and Susceptibility to Shocks; III. An Illustrative Application of the Methods, Tools, and Indicators; Figures; 1. Illustrative Stochastic Debt Projections; A. Gross Funding Needs, Market Perceptions, and Susceptibility to Spillovers; 2. Indicators of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks-Funding Needs and Market Perceptions.
B. Medium- and Long-Run Pressures and Susceptibility to Shocks3. Indicators of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks-Focusing on the Medium and Long Run; C. Bringing the Indicators Together; IV. Conclusions and Ways Forward; Appendix: Technical Aspects of the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tools; A. Data Sources; B. Distress Dependence Among Sovereigns; C. Medium- and Long-Term Adjustment Needs to Ensure Fiscal Sustainability; D. Vulnerabilities to Adverse Growth and Interest Rate Shocks; E. Stochastic Simulations: Medium-Term Risks to Public Debt Trajectories; References.

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