Hidden Bibliographic Details
| Other authors / contributors: | Ritz, Robert A. (Robert Andrew), 1979- author.
International Monetary Fund, publisher.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN: | 9781498351638
1498351638
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| ISSN: | 1018-5941
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| Notes: | "July 2016."
At head of title: International Monetary Fund, Middle East and Central Asia Department.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-33).
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed September 9, 2016).
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| Summary: | In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
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| Other form: | Print Version: Behar, Alberto. An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,2016 9781498351638
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| Standard no.: | 10.5089/9781498351638.001
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