Crude oil prices : trends and forecast /
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| Author / Creator: | Krichene, Noureddine. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | Washington : International Monetary Fund, May 2008. [Washington, District of Columbia] : International Monetary Fund, 2008. ©2008 |
| Description: | 1 online resource (25 pages) : illustrations. |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/08/133 IMF working paper (Online) ; WP/08/133. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/12508661 |
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| 050 | 4 | |a HD9560.4 |b .K753 2008 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Krichene, Noureddine. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Crude oil prices : |b trends and forecast / |c Noureddine Krichene ; authorized for distribution by Benedicte Vibe Christensen. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington : |b International Monetary Fund, |c May 2008. | |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Washington, District of Columbia] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c 2008. | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2008 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (25 pages) : |b illustrations. | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/08/133 | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a I. INTRODUCTION; II. RECENT EVOLUTION OF OIL PRICES; III. MODELING OIL PRICES AS LEVY PROCESS; IV. OIL PRICE PROCESS AS NORMAL INVERSE GAUSSIAN PROCESS; V. ESTIMATION OF OIL PRICE PROCESS AS A NORMAL INVERSE GAUSSIAN PROCESS; VI. MARKET INCOMPLETENESS AND ESSCHER TRANSFORM; VII. DENSITY FORECAST OF CRUDE OIL PRICES: THE INVERSE PROBLEM; VIII. CONCLUSIONS; REFERENCES. | |
| 520 | 8 | |a Annotation. |b Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from PDF front page (ebrary, viewed February 26, 2014). | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Petroleum products |x Prices |x Forecasting. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Produits pétroliers |x Prix |x Prévision. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Petroleum products |x Prices |x Forecasting. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01059750 | |
| 655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Christensen, Benedicte Vibe. | |
| 776 | 0 | |z 1451914458 | |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper (Online) ; |v WP/08/133. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n2004152483 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/133/001.2008.issue-133-en.xml |y INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
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