The golden rule and the economic cycles /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Honjo, Keiko, author.
Imprint:	[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, European Dept., ©2007.
Description:	1 online resource (23 pages) : illustrations
Language:	English
Series:	IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/07/199 IMF working paper ; WP/07/199.
Subject:	Fiscal policy -- Great Britain -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- Great Britain -- Econometric models. Business cycles -- Econometric models. Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. Great Britain.
Format:	E-Resource Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/13357297

Hidden Bibliographic Details
Other authors / contributors:	International Monetary Fund. European Department.
ISBN:	1283516535 9781283516532 9781451991345 1451991347 1451912161 9781451912166
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references (page 17). Restrictions unspecified Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010. Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve Print version record.
Summary:	The present formulation of the golden rule in the United Kingdom allows fiscal performance to be tested explicitly on an ex-post basis. However, it requires precise dating of the economic cycle, which can lead to significant controversy. Also, the need to aim for current balance or better "over the cycle" may force fiscal policy to be procyclical toward the end of cycles. Using dynamic stochastic simulations, the paper suggests that making the formulation of the golden rule forward-looking and independent of the dating of the economic cycle would reduce the risk of procyclicality and enhance macroeconomic stability
Other form:	Print version: Honjo, Keiko. Golden rule and the economic cycles. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, European Dept., ©2007
Standard no.:	10.5089/9781451912166.001

Table of Contents:

I. Introduction; II. Background; III. The Model and the Simulation; A. The Economic Cycle-Definition and Identification; B. Fiscal Balances; IV. Simulation Results; V. Concluding Remarks; Tables; 1. Golden Rule: Procyclical Fiscal Policy During the Cycle; 2. Comparison of Economic Performance Over the Cycle; 3. Forward-Looking Rule with a Debt Band: Procyclical Fiscal Policy During the Cycle; 4. Alternative Rule: Different Horizons; Figures ; 1. Fiscal Developments; 2. The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycle; 3. Sequence of Decisions in Each Period; 4. Economic Cycles.
5. Distribution of Cumulative Balance at the End of the CycleAppendixes; I. Data Description and Sources; II. The Model; Appendix Tables ; 1. Model Parameter Estimation Results; 2. Estimation Results for the Error Processes and Measurements Errors; References.

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