Experts in uncertainty : opinion and subjective probability in science /

Experts in uncertainty : opinion and subjective probability in science /

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Bibliographic Details
Author / Creator:	Cooke, Roger
Imprint:	New York : Oxford University Press, 1991.
Description:	xii, 321 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
Language:	English
Series:	Environmental ethics and science policy series Environmental ethics and science policy
Subject:	Science -- Philosophy Science -- Methodology Uncertainty (Information theory) Probabilities Decision-making Decision making. Probabilities. Science -- Methodology. Science -- Philosophy. Uncertainty (Information theory)
Format:	Print Book
URL for this record:	http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/1343451

Hidden Bibliographic Details
ISBN:	0195064658 (acid-free paper)
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references (p. 299-313) and indexes.

Table of Contents:

Introduction
I. Experts and Opinions
1. Think Tanks and Oracles
Conclusions: Toward a Methodology for Expert Opinion
2. Expert Opinion in Practice
3. Probabilistic Thinking
4. Heuristics and Biases
5. Building Rational Consensus
II. Subjective Probability
6. Savage's Normative Decision Theory
7. Relative Frequencies and Exchangeability
8. Elicitation and Scoring
9. Scoring Rules for Evaluating and Weighing Assessments
10. Two Experiments with Calibration and Entropy
III. Combining Expert Opinions
11. Combining Expert Opinions; Review of the Literature
Conclusion
12. The Classical Model
13. The Bayesian Model
14. Psychological Scaling Models: Paired Comparisons
15. Applications
16. Conclusions
Appendix a. Mathematical Framework and Interpretation
Appendix B. Tables
References
Author Index
Subject Index