Third millennium thinking : creating sense in a world of nonsense /

In this solid if elementary primer, Nobel Prize--winning physicist Perlmutter, UC Berkeley philosopher Campbell (Reference and Consciousness), and Stanford University psychologist MacCoun (Drug War Heresies) equip lay readers with conceptual tools for assessing technical research. Covering common ways that errors creep into scientific studies, the authors note that researchers run the risk of identifying nonexistent or meaningless patterns when working with complex data. For instance, the physicists who discovered the Higgs particle took preemptive action to avoid such misreadings by assessing information from the Large Hadron Collider in two independent teams before comparing findings. To maintain a critical eye when considering complicated problems, the authors recommend adopting a "third millennium thinking" mindset that involves embracing "intellectual humility" by recognizing that "scientific evidence can provide probabilities but not absolute certainties." Discussions on the dangers of confirmation bias and drawing sweeping conclusions from isolated anecdotes are competent if familiar. More intriguing is the authors' proposal for "deliberative polling." Stemming from their concern that credulous readings of flawed data contribute to political polarization, the authors recommend that "a randomly selected 'jury' of people drawn from the American public" solve policy issues with moderated input from experts across the political spectrum. The result is an efficient overview of methods for evaluating scientific claims. (Mar.)

A pertinent study about how knowing what questions to ask is the way to cut through confusion and misunderstanding. This interesting, challenging book is based on a popular "Big Ideas" course at UC Berkeley. Perlmutter, Campbell, and MacCoun--a physicist, philosopher, and psychologist, respectively--aim to help people "learn to think about big problems and make effective decisions in this 'too much information' age." Media saturation, data overload, fake news, and the proliferation of experts (and pseudo-experts) have combined to make the world seem like a labyrinthine mess. The authors argue that the methodology of science provides a way out, and it can be applied broadly as long as the process is properly understood. They lay out the questions to ask, the ways to separate facts from opinions, how to distinguish reliable information from background noise, how to think in terms of probabilities instead of absolutes, and how to incorporate personal values. As the authors demonstrate throughout, this approach involves a change of thinking. Get out of the echo chamber of the like-minded, they advise, and make contact with people who have different views. Review your opinions and policies, and admit it if you were wrong. Be aware of your own biases, especially the tendency to believe things simply because they confirm your views. Perlmutter, Campbell, and MacCoun provide case studies and thought exercises from their respective fields, but they avoid jargon wherever possible. They admit that the methodology can be difficult to use, although it gets easier with practice. This book is not an easy book to read and requires a good deal of attention, but the authors present many useful lessons for making sense of what is happening around us. Working across disciplines, the authors offer valuable tools for understanding this complex, confusing era. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.