| Summary: | This paper aims to measure the impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Epidemic on economic growth in Sierra Leone. The paper uses a novel empirical approach based on a Difference in Differences (DID) setup, called the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The model suggests EVD had a severe impact on growth. In 2014, the first year EVD hit the country, the impact on real growth excluding iron ore is estimated to be more than 5 percentage points. In outer years, the severity of the impact lessens, and growth converges to its normal path by 2018. -- Sierra Leone faces fiscal risks from three broad sources. Risks arise from shocks to, or uncertainty about, the evolution of macroeconomic variables; from contingent liabilities, including those of state-owned banks and enterprises; and from institutional weaknesses in public finance management. Mitigating and managing these risks will require improvements to forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables; transparent fiscal reporting; and accelerated reforms of the public finance management framework. -- Sierra Leone experienced rapid growth in exports, fuelled by iron ore related expansion. After the end of civil war, the country's exports grew steadily until 2011. Then large scale iron ore investment into the country significantly boosted total exports, while also contributing to higher growth and improved public finances. However, after peaking in 2013, exports collapsed in 2015, largely driven by the complete shutdown of iron ore production and tumbling global commodity prices. This has reinvigorated the discussion, as in many other commodity exporting countries that suffered from a similar shock, regarding the need to diversify the economy and exports to maintain macroeconomic stability. Motivated by the ongoing debate, this paper investigates the state of export diversification in Sierra Leone and determinants of export diversification to formulate policy advice.
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