A small quarterly projection model of the US economy /
Saved in:
| Imprint: | Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2008. |
|---|---|
| Description: | 1 online resource (54 pages) : illustrations (some color) |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | IMF working paper ; WP/08/278 IMF working paper ; WP/08/278. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | E-Resource Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/14153183 |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000cam a2200000 a 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 14153183 | ||
| 005 | 20250307141533.0 | ||
| 006 | m o d | ||
| 007 | cr mnu|||||||| | ||
| 008 | 091028s2008 dcua ob 000 0 eng d | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)460638732 |z (OCoLC)889196986 |z (OCoLC)1059004135 | ||
| 035 | 9 | |a (OCLCCM-CC)460638732 | |
| 040 | |a CUS |b eng |e pn |c CUS |d OCLCQ |d OCLCA |d EBLCP |d OCLCQ |d OCLCO |d VT2 |d YDXCP |d OCLCQ |d CUS |d OCLCO |d MERUC |d OCLCF |d CEF |d AU@ |d OCLCQ |d OCLCO |d CNTRU |d OCLCQ |d OCLCO |d OCLCL | ||
| 019 | |a 889196986 |a 1059004135 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781451987249 | ||
| 020 | |a 1451987242 |q (E-Book) | ||
| 020 | |a 1462363857 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781462363858 | ||
| 020 | |a 1452739994 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781452739991 | ||
| 020 | |a 1282558129 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781282558120 | ||
| 020 | |a 9786613822277 | ||
| 020 | |a 6613822272 | ||
| 037 | |b 00013468 | ||
| 043 | |a n-us--- | ||
| 050 | 4 | |a HG3810 | |
| 049 | |a MAIN | ||
| 245 | 0 | 2 | |a A small quarterly projection model of the US economy / |c prepared by Ioan Carabenciov [and others]. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2008. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (54 pages) : |b illustrations (some color) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/08/278 | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 500 | |a At head of title: Research Department. | ||
| 500 | |a "December 2008." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-29). | ||
| 520 | |a This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a I. Introduction; A. Objectives; B. The US Economy Over the Sample Period; II. Benchmark Model Without Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. The Specification of The Model; B1. Observable variables and data definitiions; B2. Stochastic processs and model definitions; B3. Behavioral equations; C. Bayesian Estimation; D. Confronting the Balanced Model with The Data; III. Extended Model with Financial-Real Linkages; A. Background; B. Model Specifications; B1. Financial- real linkages; B2. Cross correlations of disturbances; C. Results; D. Some Extensions. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a D1. Comparison of results from long sample and short sample for Model with financial variableD2. Core CPI; IV. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix; Data Definitions; Figures; 1. US Historical Data; Tables; 1. Results from Posterior Maximization (parameters) Base Code Model; 2. Results from Posterior Maximization (standard deviation of structural Shocks) Base Case Model; 2. Unemployment and Model-Consistent NAIRU; 3. GDP and Model-Consistent Potential GDP; 3. Base Case Root Mean Squared Errors; 4.; 4. Results from Posterior Maximization (parameters) BLT Model. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 5. Results from Posterior Maximization (standard deviation of structural Shocks) BLT Model6. Results from posterior parameters (correlation of structural shocks) BLT Model; 5. IRF Supply Shock; 6. IRF Demand Shock; 7. IRF Policy Rate Shock; 8. IRF BLT Shock; 9. IRF Equilibrium GDP Growth Shock; 10. IRF Equilibrium GDP Level Shock; 7. BLT Root Mean Squared Errors; 8. Variance Decompositions; 11. Y-O-Y GDP Growth Rate Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model); 12. Y-O-Y GDP Growth Rate Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model); 13. Q-O-Q GDP Growth Rate Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model). | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 14. Q_O_Q GDP Growth Rate Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model)15. Inflation Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model); 16. Inflation Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model); 17. Interest Rate Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model); 18. Interest Rate Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model); 19. Unemployment Rate Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model); 20. Unemployment Rate Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model); 21. Output GAP Dynamic Forecast (Base Case Model); 22. Output GAP Dynamic Forecast (BLT Model). | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting |z United States. | |
| 651 | 0 | |a United States |x Economic conditions |y 1981-2001 |x Econometric models. | |
| 651 | 0 | |a United States |x Economic conditions |y 2001-2009 |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Bank assets |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Monetary policy |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision économique |z États-Unis. | |
| 651 | 6 | |a États-Unis |x Conditions économiques |y 1981-2001 |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 651 | 6 | |a États-Unis |x Conditions économiques |y 2001-2009 |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Banques |x Actif |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique monétaire |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic forecasting |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic history |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Monetary policy |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJtxgQXMWqmjMjjwXRHgrq | |
| 648 | 7 | |a 1981-2009 |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carabenciov, Ioan, |e author. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2009046535 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77001219 | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a A small quarterly projection model of the US economy (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGdqpvYGT7CMvqYWPc4C73 |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |t Small quarterly projection model of the US economy. |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2008 |w (OCoLC)317414655 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/08/278. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no89010263 | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2008&issue=278 |y INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
| 929 | |a oclccm | ||
| 999 | f | f | |i 6d82da27-8a5e-487a-9805-86e014e06996 |s 067160f6-9649-488a-a1fa-0845d3a25146 |
| 928 | |t Library of Congress classification |a HG3810 |l Online |c UC-FullText |u https://elibrary.imf.org/openurl?genre=journal&issn=1018-5941&volume=2008&issue=278 |z INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |g ebooks |i 14296711 | ||