| Summary: | World Bank Discussion Paper No. 301. This paper reviews historical events in world oil and energy markets and projects world oil demand, supply, and prices to 2010. It discusses previous forecasting errors, focusing on the overly pessimistic view of non-OPEC supplies and the resulting implications for higher oil prices. The study concludes that significantly higher or lower oil prices are unlikely over the forecast period. A continuation of recent prices in real terms is more likely, and there is a greater risk in the near-to-medium term of a further decline in real oil prices. The conclusions have implications for developing countries, energy markets, energy policies, and environmental issues.
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