Preface The telecommunications industry is being rocked by change fueled by the advent of the tremendous success of the Internet and its technologies. This book considers the future of telephony in that light. For quite some time, there has been competition in the telephony business. Long-distance rates have seen continuous decreases for two decades as new carriers sought to capture greater and greater market share. Local carriers have seen competition for interconnecting the networks of large corporate customers and for providing them access to long-distance services. So, competition and change are not new issues in telecommunications. But the Internet has forced an entirely new set of changes on the phone business. There are new carriers, new business scenarios, new technologies, and new ways of thinking about end users and the services they seek. The pathos of change has escalated as Internet service providers and application providers seek to provide their new services to the end users, usually through the networks of the existing carriers. For a long time, these services were too small in service volume to attract the attention of the major carriers, and the Internet grew without their involvement. So now, after more than 20 years of growth, improvement, and experimentation, the Internet has become a major issue for large carriers. On the one hand, it threatens their existing business in several ways. On the other, it represents an opportunity to offer new services to their customers. In between the two, there is a goldmine of new technology that might be applied to their existing networks in novel and innovative ways. The Internet and its technologies can no longer be ignored by the telephone business. Central to resolution of this confrontation are voice services. It seems inevitable that the voice business will disappear into the Internet. In addition, by its very nature, there is no natural "owner" of the Internet. To many, the Internet is a bewildering morass of networks and companies that exist in a state of chaos. Indeed, this is a reasonable description of the Internet, since there is no central authority, no single entity that is "The Internet." The Internet exists because of the adoption of a few simple sets of rules and protocols that enable the exchange of information. Business arrangements are unregulated, which allows a dynamic market attitude and rapid progress. Because companies involved in the Internet as a networking business can adopt any business model, it is not possible to make broad, sweeping statements about much of anything relating to Internet business issues. Overall, this is a good thing, but it makes for difficulty in understanding the Internet as a business and in having uniform metrics and values for services and charges. It is possible that this aspect of the Internet will change in the coming years. Like any frontier, the Internet is now operating in many widely varying business models. But just as the Wild West eventually adopted a more tame posture as it matured, so will the Internet. As this occurs, it is interesting to speculate who and what may become the primary forces in the "New Internet." Those companies who are the prime movers of the Internet today may or may not find themselves displaced as time moves forward and more uniform practices prevail. Certainly, there are many powerful companies with extensive resources who would like to become the major forces in the Internet network business. The question is, who will be the "owners" of the Internet? Will it be those who operate it today? Or will other, more powerful companies, supercede the present businesses? In his epic song, the great bard Bob Dylan explains the changes he foresaw during the 1960s in America. Even though he contemplated a far different set of issues than those that confront the telecommunications industry, his words are, in my view, quite appropriate to set the stage for what is to come. In each stanza, he offers advice for (respectively) public switched telephone network operators, authors, regulators, and the original creators of the Internet. As an author, I intend to follow his advice, because I am certain that "the wheel's still in spin" and it will be for some years to come. The fundamental question that is addressed by this book echoes in the final stanza. The times they are a-changin' Come gather 'round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You'll be drenched to the bone. If your time to you Is worth savin' Then you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin'. Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That's namin'. For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin'. Come senators, congressmen Please heed the call Don't stand in the doorway Don't block up the hall For he that gets hurt Will be he who has stalled There's a battle outside And it is ragin'. It'll soon shake your windows And rattle your walls For the times they are a-changin'. Come mothers and fathers Throughout the land And don't criticize What you can't understand Your sons and your daughters Are beyond your command Your old road is Rapidly agin'. Please get out of the new one If you can't lend your hand For the times they are a-changin'. The line it is drawn The curse it is cast The slow one now Will later be fast As the present now Will later be past The order is Rapidly fadin'. And the first one now Will later be last For the times they are a-changin'. Bob Dylan, 1964 The primary purpose of this book is to place those things that are a-changin' in the telecommunications industry into a rational framework. This book explains what the telecom industry is, how the Internet and its technologies relate to voice services, and how telecom may evolve in the coming years. Knowledge of the technology and business issues will give you insight into the changes as they occur in the telecommunications industry. As Bob Dylan advises, I will resist making specific spectacular predictions. Instead, I will frame and explain various issues, pressures, and possible events that could affect the ultimate outcome. As new events and business pressures arise, I encourage you to synthesize and examine for yourself the plausible outcomes. As much as possible, the book is couched in business considerations, including assets, workforce, financing issues, investments, and profitability. Technology is also explained so that you will have a solid understanding of how the networks operate from a perspective of technology, complexity, and management needs The book provides an overview of the confrontation that is now occurring within the industry. It then reviews human speech and requirements that a network must meet to ensure successful operation. Then, the technology and operation of the existing public switched telephone network are described, after which the Internet and its key technologies are explained. Once the technical approach of carrying voice over Internet technology is explored, the structure of the "new telephony" and its control schemes are defined. Next, drivers for change in the business approach that affect competition and the rate at which change can occur are proposed, and scenarios are constructed based on the possible competitors and partners. For each scenario, the various forces at play that could influence its outcome are discussed. The concluding chapter discusses what the future might bring to the industry and some issues affecting its direction. I hope you find this book enjoyable and informative. Excerpted from The New Telephony: Technology Convergence, Industry Collision by Steve M. Walters, Stephen M. Walters All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.
