Sixth sense : accelerating organizational learning with scenarios /

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Bibliographic Details
Imprint:Chichester ; New York : Wiley, c2002.
Description:xi, 307 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.
Language:English
Subject:
Format: Print Book
URL for this record:http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/4841605
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Other authors / contributors:Van der Heijden, Kees
ISBN:0470844914
Notes:Includes bibliographical references (p. [293]-297) and index.
Table of Contents:
  • About the Authors
  • Introduction
  • The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future
  • How this Book is Organized
  • 1.. Preparing for the Future
  • Understanding Organizational Success
  • Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems
  • Success Stories
  • Barriers to Strategic Success
  • Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning
  • 2.. How Managers Think about the Future
  • Understanding Management Thinking
  • Biases in thinking
  • The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting
  • Decision Avoidance
  • Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning
  • Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning
  • 3.. How Organizations Think about the Future
  • Flaws in Organizational Thinking
  • Limitations Imposed by Identity
  • Organizational Lock-in
  • Behavioural flaws
  • Overcoming the Pathologies of Organizational Life
  • Summary: How Organizations Think About the Future
  • 4.. The Impact of Culture and Cultural Assumptions on Strategy
  • Understanding the Impact of Cultural Issues
  • Defining Culture for Pragmatic Purposes
  • National Cultural Differences and the Role of Scenario Thinking
  • Differences in Organizational Cultures
  • Differences in Professional Cultures Within Organizations
  • Moving Beyond Cultural Preconceptions and Stereotypes
  • The Application of Scenario Thinking to Cultural Understanding
  • 5.. Shaping the Future: The Emergence of Modern Scenario Techniques
  • Scenario Planning: the Human Dimension
  • Scenario Thinking and War Games
  • The Era of Possibility: the Makeable Post-war World
  • Challenging Established Thinking: the Development of Scenarios in the 1970s
  • Royal Dutch/Shell and the Problem of Predictability
  • The Development of Scenarios and Strategy During the 1980s
  • The 1990s: Scenario Planning and Organizational Learning
  • Summary: the Benefits of Scenario Planning
  • 6.. Developing the Skills for Long-Term Survival and Success: Principles of the Scenario Process
  • The Need for a Scenario Process
  • Scenarios and Scenario-based Organizational Learning
  • How Scenarios Tackle the Problems of Organizational Thinking
  • Organizational Learning
  • Summary: Developing the Skills of Survival
  • 7.. Scenario Planning in the Organizational Context
  • Introducing the Scenario Method
  • Scenarios for the Future of e-Government and the Impact of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT)
  • Stage 1. Structuring the Scenario Process
  • Stage 2. Exploring the Scenario Context
  • Stage 3. Developing the Scenarios
  • Stage 4. Stakeholder Analysis
  • Stage 5. Systems Thinking
  • Stage 6. Impacting Organizational Thinking and Action
  • Summary: Effective Scenario Planning
  • 8.. Scenario Planning: Taking Charge of the Future
  • The Energetic Problem Solver
  • Project 1. Making Sense of a Puzzling Situation
  • Project 2. Developing Strategy
  • Project 3. Improving Organizational Anticipation
  • Project 4. Building an Adaptive Learning Organization
  • Summary
  • Rethinking the Future--the Value of Scenarios in Developing Competitive Advantage
  • Developing The Sixth Sense
  • Glossary
  • References
  • Index