Managing project risk and uncertainty : a constructively simple approach to decision making /
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| Author / Creator: | Chapman, C. B. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | Chichester ; New York : Wiley, c2002. |
| Description: | xiv, 498 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/4864988 |
Table of Contents:
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1. Introduction
- Managing Uncertainty, Risk, Threat and Opportunity
- The Scope for Uncertainty in Managerial Decision Processes
- Ten Tales about Uncertainty Management
- A General Process for Supporting Managerial Decision Making
- Constructively Simple Models
- Other Aspects of Constructive Simplicity
- Keep it Simple Systematically
- 2. Nicola's tale: sizing inventories and other buffers
- Introduction
- A Stockholding Issue
- Focusing the Process
- Constructing a Model
- Refining the Analysis: Considering Safety Stock Policy
- Further Refinements: Influences on Holding Costs
- Interpreting the Results of Analysis Creatively
- Alternative Creative Interpretations
- Other Stock Control Contexts
- Other Buffer Contexts
- Conclusions
- 3. Martha's tale: setting bids and other pricing decisions
- Introduction
- A Bidding Opportunity for Astro
- A Preliminary Proposal Document
- A Proposed Multiple-Pass Process
- First-pass uncertainty management: identifying non-starters
- Second-pass uncertainty management: identifying no-hopers
- Third-pass initiation
- Third-pass cost uncertainty analysis
- Third-pass probability of winning analysis
- Third-pass uncertainty synthesis
- Third-pass bid setting discussion
- Managing requisite change
- Some general implications
- Other bidding contexts
- Conclusion
- 4. Eddy's tale: estimating measures of uncertain performance
- Introduction
- Some basic concepts
- Eddy starts work
- Eddy's first-pass minimalist approach
- First-pass interpretation and anticipation of further passes
- Anticipation of corporate learning
- Scope for automation
- Eliminating the use of probability impact matrices
- Managing and shaping expectations
- Robustness of the minimalist approach
- The user perspective: conditional estimates and cube factors
- Conclusion
- 5. Ian's tale: aligning buyer and supplier motivation
- Introduction
- A development project
- A consultant is hired
- A framework for project risk management
- A critical assessment of current common practice
- Formulating an incentive contract
- The way forward
- BIARS contracts
- Conclusion
- 6. Roger's tale: assigning ownership of project uncertainty
- Introduction
- A corporate understanding of uncertainty ownership
- Roger's defining moment
- A simple analysis of anchor risk
- Distributing the ownership of uncertainty
- Roger's simple analysis of distributed uncertainty ownership
- An internal trigger contract to manage good luck
- Designing an external trigger contract
- A revised corporate understanding of uncertainty ownership
- Epilogue
- Conclusion
- 7. Sarah's tale: facilitating the precautionary principle
- Introduction
- The Rail Passenger Safety Trust
- A conventional analysis of railway buffer events
- A Simple scenario analysis of buffer events
- Risk efficiency for a railway system
- Risk-reward balance: how safe is safe enough?
- Ambiguities in 'the relevant public'
- Ambiguities in equivalent fatalities
- Regulation via mandatory insurance
- Conclusion
- 8. Norman's tale: discounting future performance measures
- Introduction
- Norman's situation
- A first-pass model and parametric analysis
- Probabilistic analysis to support the first pass
- A second-pass probabilistic analysis
- A third-pass probabilistic analysis
- A sudden flash of hindsight
- Is a real options approach really useful?
- Conclusion
- 9. Tess's tale: making decision analysis practical
- Introduction
- A machine selection problem
- A basic model and first-pass analysis
- Exploring the value of more information
- Difficulties with the model
- A project portfolio perspective
- Abandoning a common set of discrete events with certain pay-offs
- An explicit threat and opportunity management structure
- An explicit multiple-attribute structure
- Explicit analysis of multiple-attribute trade-offs
- Conclusion
- 10. Sam's tale: concepts and issues in portfolio management
- Introduction
- Sam's assignment
- A basic Markowitz mean-variance model
- Extending the basic Markowitz model
- Sam's basic system
- Further considerations with a simplified portfolio
- Robustness of Sam's system
- Conclusion
- 11. Conrad's tale: formulating strategy
- Introduction
- Conrad's situation
- Planning horizons
- Long-term strategy formulation
- Medium-term strategy formulation and integration upwards
- Short-term strategy formulation and integration upwards
- Integrating social, environmental, ethical and political issues
- A crisis
- Conclusion
- 12. From concepts to culture
- Simple efficiency
- Basic concepts
- Key modelling concepts
- Key process concepts
- Uncertainty management systems
- Addressing cultural barriers to uncertainty management
- Culture change management
- Conclusion
- Bibliography
- Index
