Politics, paradigms, and intelligence failures : why so few predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union /
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| Author / Creator: | Seliktar, Ofira. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | Armonk, N.Y. : M.E. Sharpe, c2004. |
| Description: | xiv, 281 p. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/5518655 |
Table of Contents:
- List of Abbreviations
- Preface
- Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change
- 1. Theories of Political Change and Prediction of Change: Methodological Problems
- Methodological Problems of Tracking Changes in a Collective Belief System
- The Dimensions of a Collective Belief System: Existential Imperatives as Validity Claims
- Changing the Collective Belief System: The Process of Delegitimation
- Activating the Process of Delegitimation: Trigger Conditions of Change
- The Durability of Legitimacy: Personal and Systemic Factors of Maintenance
- Legitimacy of the Soviet Union: The Theory and Politics of a Concept
- Rational Choice Theory and Soviet Legitimacy: Coercion and Preference Falsification
- 2. Oligarchic Petrification or Pluralistic Transformation: Paradigmatic Views of the Soviet Union in the 1970s
- The Totalitarian Model: Oligarchic Petrification and Final Doom
- The Revisionist Model: Pluralistic Transformation and Final Convergence
- Revising the Revisionist View of the Soviet Union: Oligarchic Degeneration and Ideological Assertion in the Late Brezhnev Period
- 3. Paradigms and the Debate on Relations with the Soviet Union: Detente, New Internationalism, and Neoconservatism
- Realpolitik View of Detente: Securing American National Interests from a Declining Position of Power
- The New Internationalist View of Detente: Superpowers Working Together for a Moral Universe
- The Soviet View of Detente: Improving the "Correlation of Forces"
- The Neoconservative View of Detente: Outmaneuvering the United States
- Afghanistan and the Triumph of Neoconservatism
- 4. The Reagan Administration and the Soviet Interregnum: Accelerating the Demise of the Communist Empire
- The Neoconservative Paradigm in Action: The Administration's Blueprint for Delegitimizing the Soviet Union
- The Brezhnev-Andropov Transition: The View from Moscow
- The Brezhnev-Andropov Transition: The View from Washington
- The Andropov-Chernenko Transition: The View from Moscow
- The Andropov-Chernenko Transition: The View from Washington
- The Chernenko-Gorbachev Transition: The View from Moscow
- The Chernenko-Gorbachev Transition: The View from Washington
- 5. Acceleration: Tinkering Around the Edges, 1985-1986
- Revisiting Communist Legitimacy: In Search of a New Formula
- Domestic Reforms and Gorbachev's Foreign Policy: Clouding the Vision for a Global Class Struggle
- Making Sense of Gorbachev: The Politics of the Predictive Process in Washington
- The Revisionist Paradigm Vindicated? Gorbachev and the Reformability of the Soviet System
- 6. Perestroika: Systemic Change, 1987-1989
- Experimenting with a New Legitimacy Formula: From Gramsci to "Socialist Democracy" and "Socialist Market"
- Gorbachev's Foreign Policy: The Architect of Imperial Shrinkage
- Perestroika and Overload of the Predictive Process in Washington
- 1989: The Year of Revolutionary Restructuring
- The Bush Administration: The Problems of Forecasting in a Revolutionary Whirlpool
- Paradigmatic Reconfigurations: Changing the View of the Past as a Way to Predict the Future
- 7. The Unintended Consequences of Radical Transformation: Losing Control of the Revolution and the Collapse of the Soviet Union, 1990-1991
- Group Legitimacy and the Soviet "Spring of Nations"
- Economic Legitimacy and the Limits of Market Socialism
- Rolling Back the Revolution: The Communist Backlash, the August Coup, and the Collapse of the Soviet Union
- The Washington Watch: A Guide for the Perplexed
- The Totalitarian Paradigm Vindicated? The Nonreformability of the Soviet System
- 8. Reflections on Predictive Failures
- Paradigmatic Failure: Totalitarianism vs. Revisionism
- Policy Level: Vanquishing vs. Coexisting
- Intelligence Level: Advocacy vs. Objectivity
- Postdiction, Who Won the Cold War, and the Collapse of Sovietology
- Understanding the "Great Unknown": The Collapse of the Soviet Union and Predicting Political Change in the Future
- References
- Index
- About the Author
