Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities /
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| Imprint: | London ; Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, c2006. |
|---|---|
| Description: | xiii, 321 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | Statistics in practice |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/6207255 |
Table of Contents:
- Preface
- 1. Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement
- 1.1. Introduction
- 1.2. Probability and elicitation
- 1.3. Uncertainty and the interpretation of probability
- 1.4. Elicitation and the psychology of judgement
- 1.5. What use are such judgements?
- 1.6. Conclusions
- 2. The Elicitation Context
- 2.1. How and who?
- 2.2. What is an expert?
- 2.3. The elicitation process
- 2.4. Conventions in ChaptersA 3 toA
- 9. A
- 2.5. Conclusions
- 3. The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty
- 3.1. Introduction
- 3.2. Understanding the task and the expert
- 3.3. Understanding research on human judgement
- 3.4. The heuristic and biases research programme
- 3.4.6. The affect heuristic
- 3.5. Experts and expertise
- 3.6. Three meta theories of judgement
- 3.7. Conclusions
- 4. The Elicitation of Probabilities
- 4.1. Introduction
- 4.2. The Calibration of Subjective Probabilities
- 4.3. The calibration in subjective probabilities: theories and explanations
- 4.4. Representations and methods
- 4.5. Debiasing
- 4.6. Conclusions
- 5. Eliciting Distributions - General
- 5.1. From probabilities to distributions
- 5.2. Eliciting univariate distributions
- 5.3. Eliciting multivariate distributions
- 5.4. Uncertainty and imprecision
- 5.5. Conclusions
- 6. Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution
- 6.1. Introduction
- 6.2. Outline of this chapter
- 6.3. Eliciting opinion about a proportion
- 6.4. Eliciting opinion about a general scalar quantity
- 6.5. Eliciting opinion about a set of proportions
- 6.6. Eliciting opinion aboutA the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution
- 6.7. Eliciting opinion aboutA the parameters of a linear regression model
- 6.8. Eliciting opinion about the parameters of a generalized linear model
- 6.9. Elicitation methods for other problems
- 6.10. Deficiencies in existing research
- 6.11. Conclusions
- 7. Eliciting Distributions - Uncertainty and Imprecision
- 7.1. Introduction
- 7.2. Imprecise probabilities
- 7.3. Incomplete information
- 7.4. Summary
- 7.5. Conclusions
- 8. Evaluating Elicitation
- 8.1. Introduction
- 8.2. Scoring rules
- 8.3. Coherence, feedback and overfitting
- 8.4. Conclusions
- 9. Multiple Experts
- 9.1. Introduction
- 9.2. MathematicalA aggregation
- 9.3. BehaviouralA aggregation
- 9.4. Discussion
- 9.5. Elicitation practice
- 9.6. A Research questions
- 10. Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion
- 10.1. Some applications
- 10.2. An example of an elicitation interview - eliciting engine sales
- 10.3. Medicine
- 10.4. The nuclear industry
- 10.5. Veterinary science
- 10.6. Agriculture
- 10.7. Meteorology
- 10.8. Business studies, economics and finance
- 10.9. Other professions
- 10.10. Other examples of the elicitation of subjective probabilities
- 11. Guidance on Best Practice
- 12. Areas for Research
- Glossary
- Bibliography
- Author Index
- Index
