This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly /
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| Author / Creator: | Reinhart, Carmen M. |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | Princeton : Princeton University Press, c2009. |
| Description: | xlv, 463 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/7795788 |
Table of Contents:
- List of Tables
- List of Figures
- List of Boxes
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and The Fickle Nature of Confidence
- Part I. Financial Crises: An Operational Primer
- 1. Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
- Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement
- Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default
- Other Key Concepts
- 2. Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default
- Debt Thresholds
- Measuring Vulnerability
- Clubs and Regions
- Reflections on Debt Intolerance
- 3. A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View
- Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP
- Government Finances and National Accounts
- Public Debt and Its Composition
- Global Variables
- Country Coverage
- Part II. Sovereign External Debt Crises
- 4. A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises
- Sovereign Lending
- Illiquidity versus Insolvency
- Partial Default and Rescheduling
- Odious Debt
- Domestic Public Debt
- Conclusions
- 5. Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt
- Recurring Patterns
- Default and Banking Crises
- Default and Inflation
- Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default
- The Duration of Default Episodes
- 6. External Default through History
- The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300--1799
- Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story
- External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture
- Part III. The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default
- 7. The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default
- Domestic and External Debt
- Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition
- Episodes of Domestic Default
- Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt
- 8. Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation
- Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle
- Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default
- The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax"
- Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base?
- The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited
- 9. Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior?
- Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
- Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
- The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors
- Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues
- Part IV. Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes
- 10. Banking Crises
- A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises
- Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace
- Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization
- Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices
- Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry?
- The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited
- Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations
- 11. Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite"
- 12. Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes
- An Early History of Inflation Crises
- Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons
- Currency Crashes
- The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses
- Undoing Domestic Dollarization
- Part V. The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction
- 13. The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison
- A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath
- The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis
- Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis
- The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis
- A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies
- Summary
- 14. The Aftermath of Financial Crises
- Historical Episodes Revisited
- The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration
- The Fiscal Legacy of Crises
- Sovereign Risk
- Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s
- Concluding Remarks
- 15. The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals?
- Concepts of Contagion
- Selected Earlier Episodes
- Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction
- Are More Spillovers Under Way?
- 16. Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil
- Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index
- Defining a Global Financial Crisis
- The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype
- Summary
- Part VI. What Have We Learned?
- 17. Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature
- On Early Warnings of Crises
- The Role of International Institutions
- Graduation
- Some Observations on Policy Responses
- The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome
- Data Appendixes
- A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series
- A.2. Public Debt
- A.3. Dates of Banking Crises
- A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises
- Notes
- References
- Name Index
- Subject Index