Probably not : future prediction using probability and statistical inference /
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| Author / Creator: | Dworsky, Lawrence N., 1943- |
|---|---|
| Imprint: | Hoboken, N.J. : Wiley-Interscience, c2008. |
| Description: | xv, 310 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/7987632 |
Table of Contents:
- Preface
- 1. An Introduction to Probability
- Predicting the Future
- Rule Making
- Random Events and Probability
- The Lottery {{Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}}
- Coin Flipping {{Fair Games, Looking Backwards for Insight}}
- The Coin Flip Strategy that Can't Lose
- The Prize Behind the Door {{Looking Backwards for Insight, Again}}
- The Checkerboard {{Dealing with Only Part of the Data Set}}
- 2. Probability Distribution Functions and Some Basics
- The Probability Distribution Function
- Averages and Weighted Averages
- Expected Values
- The Basic Coin Flip Game
- The Standard Deviation
- The Cumulative Distribution Function
- The Confidence Interval
- Final Points
- 3. Building a Bell
- 4. Random Walks
- The One-Dimensional Random Walk
- What Probability Really Means
- Diffusion
- 5. Life Insurance and Social Security
- Insurance as Gambling
- Life Tables
- Birth Rates and Population Stability
- Life Tables, Again
- Premiums
- Social Security-Sooner or Later?
- 6. Binomial Probabilities
- The Binomial Probability Formula
- Permutations and Combinations
- Large Number Approximations
- The Poisson Distribution
- Disease Clusters
- Clusters
- 7. Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations
- Pseudorandom Numbers
- The Middle Square PSNG
- The Linear Congruential PSNG
- A Normal Distribution Generator
- An Arbitrary Distribution Generator
- Monte Carlo Simulations
- A League of Our Own
- 8. Some Gambling Games in Detail
- The Basic Coin Flip Game
- The Gantt Chart
- The "Ultimate Winning Strategy"
- The Game Show
- Parimutuel Betting
- 9. Traffic Lights and Traffic
- Outsmarting a Traffic Light?
- Many Lights and Many Cars
- Simulating Traffic Flow
- Simulation Results
- 10. Combined and Conditional Probabilities
- Functional Notation
- Conditional Probability
- Medical Test Results
- The Shared Birthday Problem
- 11. Scheduling and Waiting
- Scheduling Appointments in the Doctor's Office
- Lunch with a Friend
- Waiting for a Bus
- 12. Stock Market Portfolios
- 13. Benford, Parrondo, and Simpson
- Benford's Law
- Parrondo's Paradox
- Simpson's Paradox
- 14. Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation, and Chain Letters
- Degrees of Separation
- Propagation Along the Networks
- Some Other Uses of Networks
- Neighborhood Chains
- 15. Bird Counting
- A Walk in the Woods
- A Model of Bird Flying Habits
- Spotting a Bird
- Putting It All Together
- 16. Statistical Mechanics and Heat
- Statistical Mechanics
- Thermodynamics
- 17. Introduction to Statistical Analysis
- Sampling
- Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations
- Estimating Population Average from a Sample
- The Student T Distribution
- Polling Statistics
- Did a Sample Come from a Given Population?
- 18. Chaos and Quanta
- Chaos
- Probability in Quantum Mechanics
- Index
