Using social media to gauge Iranian public opinion and mood after the 2009 election : technical report /
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| Imprint: | Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2012. |
|---|---|
| Description: | xxi, 86 p. : ill. ; 28 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | RAND Corporation technical report series ; TR-1161-RC Technical report (Rand Corporation) ; TR-1161-RC. |
| Subject: | |
| Format: | Print Book |
| URL for this record: | http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/8679338 |
Table of Contents:
- Preface
- Figures and Table
- Summary
- Acknowledgments
- Abbreviations
- Chapter 1. Introduction
- Analysis of Social Media Can Help Gauge Public Opinion and Mood in Closed Societies
- A New Computer-Based Tool Offers a Promising Means of Tapping into Politically Oriented Content in Social Media
- This Type of Analysis Can Have Important Policy Uses
- Organization of This Report
- Chapter 2. Methodology
- The Precedent for Our Approach: Previous Research Using LIWC and Word-Usage Analysis
- LIWC Has Been Shown to Accurately Represent Verbal Expression
- The Real Potential of Exploring Word Usage Lies in Its Links with Behaviors and Outcomes
- Word Usage Is Now Being Studied in Politically Oriented Contexts
- Our Research Process
- Planning Tasks: Understanding the Sphere of Relevant Social Media
- Selecting Twitter Texts
- Selecting Iran-Relevant Political Topics
- Selecting the LIWC Word Categories to Use in Our Analysis and Defining How We Would Interpret Them
- Chapter 3. Background on Social Media Use in Iran and Events Surrounding the 2009 Election
- Social Media Use in Contemporary Iran
- The Scale of Internet and Social Media Usage in Contemporary Iran
- Who Is Using Social Media in Iran?
- The Anonymity Factor
- The Iranian Information Environment Prior to the 2009 Presidential Election
- The Use of Social Media During the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran
- The Role of Social Media in Iran's Internal Politics Grew Rapidly After the 2009 Presidential Election
- Major Events in Iran During the Post-Election Period
- The Rise of Mass Protests
- June 19: Khamenei's Friday Prayer Speech
- June 20: Neda Agha-Soltan's Death
- July 9: Anniversary of the 1999 Student Uprisings
- August 5: Ahmadinejad's Inauguration
- September 18: Quds Day
- Late December: Ashura Day Protests
- February 11, 2010: 31st Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution
- Chapter 4. Overall Trends in Public Mood in Iran After the 2009 Presidential Election
- Public Mood Throughout the Nine Months After the Election
- Twitter's Clearest Indicator of Mood and Forecaster of Action: Swear Words
- Use of Pronouns on Twitter After the Election
- Summary
- Chapter 5. Iranian Public Opinion About Specific Topics in the Aftermath of the 2009 Election
- Public Opinion Leading Domestic Political Figures: Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Mousavi, and Karroubi
- Summary
- Background
- Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Figures
- Around the Quds Day Protest, Twitter Users Wrote More Negatively About Khamenei Than About Ahmadinejad
- At Certain Points, Twitter Users Wrote More Positively and Less Negatively About Karroubi Than About Mousavi
- Initially, Twitter Users Swore More About Ahmadinejad Than About Mousavi, but the Opposite Became True
- Policy Implications
- Pro-Government and Opposition Groups: The Green Movement, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij
- Summary
- Background
- Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Groups
- The Green Movement Was Viewed More Positively Than the Revolutionary Guards or Basij
- Twitter Users Swore More About the Basij Than About the Revolutionary Guards
- Public Opinion About the United States, President Obama, and the CIA
- Summary
- Usage of Swear Words Suggests Early Frustration with the United States and President Obama, as Well as a Strong Desire for U.S. Action
- Usage of First-Person Singular Pronouns Regarding the United States and President Obama Generally Paralleled Usage of Swear Words
- Pronoun Use When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures
- Twitter Users Expressed Less Negative Emotion When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures
- Positive Emotions in Tweets About Obama Showed Several Pronounced Spikes Compared with Tweets About the United States
- Some Twitter Users Pointed to Foreign Influence, Particularly Intelligence Agencies, as the Driving Force Behind Protests
- Public Opinion About Specific Countries: Israel, the United States, and Iran
- Summary
- Twitter Users Only Infrequently Swore Regarding Israel or the United States
- Twitter Users Swore More When Referring to the "Islamic Republic" Than to "Iran"
- Twitter Users Expressed Positive Emotions Toward Israelis Who May Have Aided the Protest Movement
- Chapter 6. Methodological Considerations
- Additional Demonstration of the Methodology: Sadness Words
- Linguistic Indicators That Did Not Work as Expected on Twitter
- Differences in Phrasing May Reflect Differing Intentions and Writing Styles
- Limitations of Automated Analysis Suggest That It Is Complementary Approach to Manual Analysis
- Chapter 7. Next Steps: A Design for a Second Phase of This Program of Research
- Looking Ahead Toward the 2013 Iranian Presidential Elections
- Validating the Methodology
- Improving Current Aspects of the Methodology
- Expanding the Scope of the Current Work
- Appendix Additional Details Regarding Methodology: Data Collection and Analysis
- References