Oracles : how prediction markets turn employees into visionaries /

Investors prefer entrepreneurs who personally invest in a venture and have "skin in the game," indicating they are committed to their decisions. Prediction markets work on the same principle: people staking money on a decision take it more seriously and typically are more accurate. In Oracles, Thompson (emer., York Univ., Canada) explains how prediction markets converge on accuracy, and why they are more helpful to firms than are surveys. Thompson drills down into the "fast thinking" aspect of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow (CH, Jun'12, 49-5972); people can trust a decision-maker's choices if they can trust that the person making the decision had sufficient incentive to get it right. Thompson provides four chapter-long case studies (including Google and Best Buy), plus intriguing but lesser-known examples (e.g., casting a Broadway show). Better yet are several references for further exploration, including prediction software for internal firm use. The book's only weakness occurs when the author expands from using prediction markets to improve decisions to changing everything about how a firm is organized and operates. Overall, Oracles offers a fresh look at improving decision-making skills. Summing Up: Highly recommended. Upper-division undergraduate students through professionals. J. J. Janney University of Dayton